GOAL TOTALS • EXPECTANCY MODELS

Over / Under Intelligence

Quantitative analysis of total match goals. Evaluating pacing divergence between bivariate Poisson models and market lines.

Evaluated Totals: Quarter & Half Totals (0.5 to 4.5)Over 2.5 Baseline Vig: -3.54%Scoring Regime: Bivariate Goal Distribution

Empirical Distribution

League Scoring Tendencies

Evaluated across completed 2024–2026 fixture records

DEU-BUNDESLIGAHIGH OVER

Average Goals:3.16 / match

BTTS Frequency:59.58%

CHE-SUPERHIGH OVER

Average Goals:3.22 / match

BTTS Frequency:63.04%

NLD-EREDIVISIEHIGH OVER

Average Goals:3.14 / match

BTTS Frequency:58.89%

USA-MLSHIGH OVER

Average Goals:3.12 / match

BTTS Frequency:61.21%

Global football totals are highly polarized: German Bundesliga and Swiss Super League average over 3.15 goals per match, while Argentine Primera Division averages under 2.00 goals per match with a 60.5% Under 2.5 rate. Edge detection requires adjusting baseline Poisson rates per league cluster.

Target Matches

Upcoming Over / Under Fixtures

View Full Schedule →

Super League18:15 UTC

Panathinaikos

Kifisia