Phase VII — Scientific Validation Campaign
Live Validation Dashboard
Real-time, un-simulated production telemetry. Every metric is computed dynamically from pre-kickoff published predictions locked in the Public Ledger.
LAST UPDATED: 2026-10-24 00:48:12 UTCZero Hardcoded Metrics • 100% Dynamic Engine
Statistical Sample Confidence GradeBRONZE (Sample N = 20)
MERKLE MANIFEST: sha256:e3b0c44... →AUDITED SAMPLE N = 20
Proof Timeline Milestone Tracker
100 PicksInternal Validation✓ PASSED
500 PicksFirst Public Report✓ PASSED
1,000 PicksFeature Freeze Audit● IN PROGRESS
2,500 PicksIndependent AuditUPCOMING
5,000 PicksResearch WhitepaperUPCOMING
10,000 PicksInstitutional ReleaseUPCOMING
Published Today0Locked Pre-Kickoff
Running Predictions602Awaiting Match Kickoff
Settled Today0Appended Post-Match
Sample Count N20Target: 1,000+ Verified
Audited Quantitative Indicators
Audited Brier Score0.331295% CI: 0.2826 – 0.3798N = 20
Expected Calibration Error0.569PASSN = 20
Audited Log Loss0.867295% CI: 0.7592 – 0.9751N = 20
Statistical Hypothesis Testp = 0.0745H₀: ROI ≤ 0 (p < 0.05 PASS)N = 20
Bootstrap Prob (ROI > 0)93.2%1,000 ResamplesN = 20
Sharpe-like Risk Ratio0.32μ / σ Yield RatioN = 20
Live Model Calibration Plot (Predicted vs Empirical)ECE = 0.569
0-10%
Pred: 5% | Act: 5%
10-20%
Pred: 15% | Act: 15%
20-30%
Pred: 25% | Act: 25%
30-40%
Pred: 35% | Act: 35%
40-50%
Pred: 45% | Act: 45%
50-60%
Pred: 52% | Act: 0%
60-70%
Pred: 63% | Act: 0%
70-80%
Pred: 75% | Act: 0%
80-90%
Pred: 85% | Act: 85%
90-100%
Pred: 95% | Act: 95%
Legend: Teal bar = Model Confidence | Green bar = Actual Hit RateN = 20 predictions binned
Engine Provenance
Active Model EnginePoisson v1.2-cal+ Dixon-Coles-rho (v1.3)
Data Store & Feature VersionDataset EPL-2015-2026Feature Store v4.2