Model Evolution History (v1.0 → v3.0)
Every model iteration is documented, benchmarked, and auditable. Track the progression of goal expectation engines, calibration curves, and market intelligence layers.
Version Progression Pipeline
Algorithmic Evolution Release Log
Poisson Baseline Model
Released: Jan 2026Establish baseline Independent Double Poisson goal expectation probabilities.
Rolling 10-match home/away xG offensive & defensive parameters.
Dixon-Coles Dependence Engine
Released: Mar 2026Correct low-scoring goal dependence (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1) under-estimation.
Bivariate dependence factor rho (-0.041) and time-decay weighting.
ELO & Travel Fatigue Integration
Released: Apr 2026Incorporate team momentum, FIFA window fatigue vectors, and venue rating deltas.
Opponent-strength adjusted ELO ratings and travel distance decay.
Platt Scaling & Isotonic Calibration
Released: Jun 2026Transform raw model probabilities into calibrated empirical confidence intervals.
Non-linear Platt scaling layer & cohort-specific derby calibration.
Market Intelligence & Pinnacle CLV
Released: Jul 2026Benchmark model implied odds against Pinnacle closing line price action.
Closing Line Value (CLV) delta tracking & fractional Kelly staking.
Scientific Validation & Prediction DOI
Released: Jul 2026 MilestoneHandicapLab v2 Milestone. Transition to Quantitative Research Institute.
Immutable Prediction DOI (HLP-2026-EPL-000421), Trust Center, Hall of Mistakes.