AH-dixoncoles-shrink30-v1.0.3

Dixon-Coles + 30% shrinkage toward market

Scientific Hypothesis

Reduce overconfidence via 30% market blend

RESEARCH STATUS:Model AH-dixoncoles-v1.0.0 is NOT VALIDATED. Historical backtest ROI: -2.30%. CLV not statistically significant (p=0.555). All outputs are published strictly for quantitative research transparency, not as betting recommendations.

Historical Calibration Tournament Results (EPIC 56)

REALIZED ROI-2.23%

CLV MEAN+0.0705

CLV P-VALUEp=0.430

SAMPLE SIZE5,778 bets

FROZEN PARAMETERS (IMMUTABLE DATABASE RECORD)

{
  "rho": -0.05,
  "shrinkage": 0.3,
  "decay_xi": 0.0019,
  "max_goals": 6
}

Live Predictions Generated by AH-dixoncoles-shrink30-v1.0.3

Audited out-of-sample predictions registered for this model version.

No predictions currently in ledger for this model variant.